Focus: Five-Year Development Plan II

The Slow March

Jan. 3, 2018

In April 2016, President Magufuli launched FYDP II, a 103-page document that maps Tanzania's trajectory to middle income status by 2025. The FYDP II's overarching rhetoric of “industrialization for economic growth” is supported by detailed breakdowns of key initiatives to be implemented in each sector, flagship projects and their budgets, and steps for sourcing the necessary financing to complete these projects.

Indeed, sustainable growth through the establishment of an industrial economy is the plan's foremost priority, followed by the goal to combine this with human development through various labour, health, and education programs. Seven pages of proposed regulatory and policy reforms testify to the third priority: to create an enabling environment for business development. The fourth and final priority, tying in with the government's propensity for checks and balances, is to strengthen supervision, monitoring, and evaluation for better implementation of the plan. The bar is being set high across the board. Umbrella targets include an increase in GDP growth from 7% in 2015 to 10% by 2021, and a parallel increase in per capita income from previous recorded levels of USD1,043 to USD1,500. The FYDP II calls for a reduction of the poverty rate from 28.2% in 2011/12 to 16.7% by 2020, as well as an increase in the human development index from 0.52 in 2014 to 0.57. Inflation should remain at 5%, kept low through non-inflationary monetary policies, restriction of bank borrowing, and avoidance of budget deficits.

More specifically, the target in agriculture is to achievea real growth rate of 7.6%, with an emphasis on improving value chains, skills promotion, and technology solutions. Energy generation should more than triple, from 1,501MW in 2015 to 4,915MW in 2020, with electricity reaching 60% of the population, up from 36% in 2015. Renewables should contribute to 50% of this mix, with a target to reduce consumption of charcoal in urban areas by 60%.

Tourism should expect 6.2% growth, thanks to an aggressive promotion and marketing drive, as well as investments in infrastructure and skilled labor force, a focus on domestic tourism, and diversification of new resources.

The manufacturing sector is to experience 10% growth every year, increasing export capacity and making use of so-called “dormant assets,” including industries, expertise, and land. Developments continue on the various industrial corridors and zones to improve enterprise efficiency, creating “economies of conglomeration.” These include the central development corridor, the Special Economic Zone in Tanga, and the Southern Agriculture Growth Corridor of Tanzania. Other flagship projects comprise the much-reported revival of Air Tanzania, construction of Mloganzila and Dodoma medical schools as part of the boost given to science and technology, and the ongoing development of the coal and iron ore mines in the Mtwara region.

For the FYDP II, the government anticipates the need to mobilize TZS107 trillion (USD47.4 billion). The government will raise TZS59 trillion (USD26.1 billion), an average of TZS11.8 trillion (USD5.2 billion) a year, through tax collection. This leaves an average of TZS10 trillion (USD4.4 billion) per year to come through revenue collection, the private sector, and loans. An injection of non-tax revenue is expected following the change in requirements for companies to issue IPOs and list on the stock exchange. Indeed, the private sector is to play a number one role in investing in industrialization, with government facilitation via conducive policy frameworks. For this, the targets are also clear: to reach 100th of 189 countries in the ease of doing business rankings, reduce export time to 12-15 days, and reduce the number of documents needed to eight. All governmental agencies are to be connected to the e-network. As the President himself stated in the FYDP II's forward, the onus is on “strengthening the dialog mechanism with the private sector and other stakeholders, given that some of the reforms are likely to trigger trade-offs.”