Diplomacy

Lopez Obrador in US

Opposition leader crosses border

The Mexican left-wing leader has attempted to win support by visiting emigrants in California ahead of the 2018 election.

“It is here that we must stand up to the campaign of hatred and human rights violations. Particularly, we must entirely focus on those Americans of good will, and there are many, to make them see that they are being victims of manipulation and deceit,” he said during his speech in Los Angeles on Monday, appealing to the “good hombres” to overcome these tense times.

The politician, whose nickname “El Peje” comes from the indigenous Mexican fish “pejelagarto,” called on followers to “establish communication” with the people who voted for Trump. “We must make them realize that migrants are not to blame if they are unemployed or don’t have good salaries and wellbeing,” he added.

According to local media sources, about 500 people gathered in Los Angeles to attend the event, the majority long-established Mexican immigrants who have been living in California for decades. While it is difficult to say how many votes this trip will win for Morena from US-based Mexicans, holding events in “hostile land” has garnered support and improved his image at home.

President Enrique Peña Nieto, who currently has a 12% approval rate, is not in a position to speak out and make similar trips to the US. Lopez Obrador, not being a member of the government and known as a key opposition leader, is ideally placed to do so. His open criticism of Trump and freedom of movement are privileges that Peña Nieto does not enjoy as Mexican Head of State.

As a result, support for Lopez Obrador has been on the rise, while that of Peña Nieto is on the wane. The delicate diplomatic responses offered by the president in response to Trump’s aggressive rhetoric have been perceived as lackluster by many voters.

Despite Trump’s comments on Mexico, Peña Nieto has not been successful in uniting his citizens. His low popularity rate—the lowest ever recorded according to polls by daily newspaper Reforma—as well as emerging corruption cases linked to his Partido Revolucionario Institucional (PRI), have alienated citizens and other political parties, making it difficult to reach consensus.

As a result, Mexican political parties are fighting to capitalize on anti-Trump sentiment, but so far the only successful campaign has been that of “El Peje.” His left-wing group, created in 2011, has so far not been involved in any major corruption scandal (in contrast with all other major parties), and has a message which speaks to working class Mexicans.

Before the 2018 presidential election takes place, Mexican politicians will have to face a first round in 2017, when three states elect new governors in June. The most important of these three is in the State of Mexico, which almost completely surrounds the capital Mexico City. Recent polls suggest the PRI candidate is the favorite to win, although the Morena candidate is narrowing the gap to win the governorship of the most populous federal entity in the country.

This 2017 election is widely regarded as a yardstick for measuring which party is in the best shape to win the 2018-2024 presidential term. Should Lopez Obrador become the country’s new leader, tensions between Mexico and the US are likely to rise, as diplomatic nuance characterizes neither Trump nor “El Peje.”